CNH Industrial Group says it is stopping the sales of construction machinery and equipment in the Chinese market after Dec. 31, 2022. This is another significant development by foreign brands in the Chinese market.
John Deere withdrew from the Chinese market after the original industrial structure was changed by the merger of the Chinese plant of Kobelco Construction Machinery Co., Ltd. At the same time, Hitachi Construction Machinery also made changes to Hitachi Construction Machinery (Shanghai) Co., Ltd., which is responsible for sales and services in China, and set up a new sales and service company, “Hitachi Construction Machinery Sales (China) Co., Ltd.”, which began operating Nov. 1, 2022.
On Dec. 29, 2020, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment announced that from Dec. 1, 2022, all off-road mobile machines below 560kw (including 560kw) produced, imported and sold and their diesel engines installed shall meet the requirements of the Chinese IV emission standard. The implementation time of Chinese IV emission of off-road mobile machinery above 560kw and its installed diesel engines has not been announced.
The development trend for the new energy vehicle (EVs) market remained positive through 2022. In November, retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 598,000 units, with a year-on-year growth of 58.2%. From January to November, the domestic retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles were 5.03 million units, with a year-on-year growth of 100.1%.
As for December, the Passenger Transport Federation believes that the subsidy for new energy vehicles will decline by 12,600 RMB this year, which is much more than the decline of 5000 RMB in the previous two years. In addition, some vehicle enterprises have announced a price increase for next year, which may promote strong pre-buying of new energy vehicles at the end of the year and boost sales.
This year, the new energy vehicle market is expected to achieve the annual sales of 6.5 million vehicles.
Mercedes-Benz heavy-duty truck factory in China has started mass production and its first domestic Chinese heavy-duty truck has rolled off the assembly line. The rollout reflects the Mercedes Benz truck localization project, under which Mercedes is producing heavy duty trucks built specifically for the domestic Chinese market.
The first batch of Mercedes Benz domestic heavy trucks is scheduled to be delivered to customers in early November.
In the process of localization, MB is striving to achieve a balance between high quality and cost. It is working with 150 domestic suppliers to improve manufacturing quality capability and localize the supply of more than 1500 parts. Presently, the localization rate of Mercedes Benz heavy truck Actros series exceeds 50%, and the localization rate of Actros C series is 90%.
Mercedes Benz trucks has established a Mercedes Benz business unit under the joint venture of Daimler Trucks Co., Ltd. and Foton Motor, which have a 50: 50 share ownership.
On Dec. 29, 2020, the Ministry of ecology and environment announced that Dec. 1, 2022, all off-road mobile machines below 560kw (including 560kw) produced, imported and sold and their diesel engines installed shall meet the requirements of the Chinese IV emission standard.
The implementation time of Chinese IV emission of off-road mobile machinery above 560kw and its installed diesel engines will be announced separately.
In 2022, due to adverse factors at home and abroad, enterprises in the industry will generally face market pressure. In order to better switch the upgrading of Chinese IV emission standards from the aspects of supply chain and industrial chain, steadily promote the implementation of Chinese IV emission standards, reduce the operating pressure of enterprises, and maintain the stable and sustainable development of the industry, the Association recently submitted the “request for instructions on the implementation time delay of Chinese IV emission standards for off- road mobile construction machinery” to the atmospheric environment department of the Ministry of ecological environment according to the policy advice and suggestions of enterprises on Chinese IV emission, It is suggested that the conversion time of the whole machine products with the national three emission standards for construction machinery to the national four emission standards be postponed from December 1, 2022 to April 1, 2023. Regarding the application submitted by the association to the Ministry of ecology and environment for “postponing the implementation time of the ‘National four’ emission standard for off-road mobile construction machinery”, the Association received a clear reply: it will not be further extended! Therefore, the “national four” emission standards for off-road mobile machinery will be switched as scheduled from December 1, 2022.
The heavy truck industry fell in the first half of 2022 by more than 63% from the previous year. According to the latest statistics from the China Automobile Association, for January to June this year, the overall sales volume of the domestic heavy truck market was about 380,000 units, a decrease of 63.6% compared with the same period last year.
In June, the sales volume of China’s heavy truck industry was only 55,000 units, a year-over-year decrease of 65%. The main reasons for the decline in heavy truck sales this year are the upgrading of emission standard from “China V” to “China VI” last year, which caused a pre-buy in the market, and the impact of the epidemic this year, which depressed the logistics and transportation market, further curbing demand for new trucks.
The heavy truck industry is a cyclical industry, and its development cycle fluctuates due to changes in environmental protection policies and the overall economy. Following a 14 month decline in sales, the primary concern in the heavy truck industry is this: When will there be a turnaround?
Under its new Five Year Plan, Beijing will expand restriction on the use of vehicles entering Beijing. At the same time, Beijing will restrict the use of China III diesel trucks and will implement regional traffic restrictions during peak hours of working days, strengthen the management of illegal electric three and four wheeled vehicles, and implement a preferential traffic policy for new energy logistics and distribution vehicles.
The Five Year Plan also calls for the promotion of low-carbon new energy transportation tools, and the promotion of “oil for electricity” of vehicles in public transport, rental (including cruise and online appointment), tourism and freight transportation.
Today, 69,000 diesel trucks have been eliminated in Beijing, and the proportion of clean energy and new energy vehicles in public transportation has reached 90.2%. Beijing plans to accelerate the promotion of new energy intelligent vehicle technology and cost reductions in many applications.
“By 2025, the national gas storage capacity of intensive layout will reach 55 billion ~ 60 billion cubic meters, accounting for about 13% of natural gas consumption. Build a green and low-carbon transportation system, optimize and adjust the transportation structure, vigorously develop multi-modal transport, promote the medium and long-distance transportation of bulk goods “from rail to water”, encourage the use of clean fuels such as LNG in the field of heavy-duty trucks and ships, and strengthen the guarantee of clean energy supply in the transportation industry. It is emphasized that the LNG storage and transportation system in Bohai Rim region, Yangtze River Delta region and Guangdong Hong Kong Macao Bay area should be continuously improved, and the core is the construction of LNG terminal.”
PSRAnalysis. China’s LNG import volume in 2022 is expected to surpass Japan and become the world’s largest LNG importer. At the same time, China has built 22 LNG terminals. There are more than 200 LNG manufacturers in China, with an annual capacity of about 30 million tons.
“China has the largest automobile production in the world, the most complete industrial foundation, supply chain foundation, talent foundation and market foundation,” said Li Bin, chairman of Weilai automobile.
These factors provide China with a significant advantage in developing intelligent EVs, he said “In fact, if we can have the advantages of these four aspects at the same time, China is the only one in the world,” he added.
The penetration rate of new energy has exceeded 10% in 2021. From the trend, this target will exceed 20% in 2025. China’s penetration rate of intelligent electric vehicles in 2030 will exceed 90% in new car sales. In recent years, with the accelerated popularization of intelligent electric vehicles, the automotive industry will once again become the commanding height of scientific and technological innovation.
PSR Analysis: Today, new bus procurement is fully electrified. Buses have fixed routes, and the operation range is relatively stable. At the end of 2020, all buses in key regions and major cities have been replaced with new energy. The trend of bus electrification will continue to be promoted nationwide and gradually electric buses will replace diesel vehicles.
Considering that the running distance and working environment are relatively controllable, the market promotion of oil and electricity price difference, and the gradual completion of bus electrification, taxis will also accelerate electrification.
The second step is to accelerate the electrification of trucks such as urban logistics, environmental sanitation and muck trucks. The State Council proposes to promote green and low-carbon means of transportation, port and airport services, urban logistics distribution and postal express to give priority to the use of new energy or clean energy and strengthen the charging and switching facilities of new energy vehicles.
The penetration rate of private car electrification will also continue to increase. According to the current situation, electric vehicles can replace unified fuel vehicles in terms of price and mileage around 2025. At the same time, with the promotion of electrification in the field of public transport and trucks, driving the continuous improvement of infrastructure, the electrification of private cars will proceed more smoothly. PSR
Jack Hao is Senior Research Manager – China, for Power Systems Research
Electrification has become one of the important directions of green development within China’s construction machinery segment. Domestic construction machinery leaders have increased the development of equipment electrification and have launched a variety of electrification products.
Some professional organizations predict that by 2025 the penetration rate of main products may reach 25%. The electrification of construction machinery initially replaces conventional diesel engine drive with electric drive and then the hydraulic device is replaced by an electric device. Concrete mixers, truck cranes, muck trucks, excavators and wheel-loaders are the most easily electrically driven products, especially for small construction machinery.
Toyota reportedly has partnered with China’s BYD to develop an affordable electric car to launch next year. The Japanese automaker has widely been recognized as a laggard in the transition to electric vehicles. Years of betting on hydrogen fuel cells and hybrid vehicles has put Toyota behind on battery-electric vehicles.
Reuters reports Toyota is planning to release a “small and affordable electric sedan” in China next year:
The electric vehicle is reportedly going to be powered by BYD’s blade battery cells with LFP chemistry. LFP chemistry has improved enough in recent years that it is moving from mainly being used in electric buses to now electric cars. BYD’s blade battery has attracted a lot of attention – even from Tesla, according to reports coming out of China. A Toyota source talking to Reuters said that it is what is enabling the automaker to produce its first affordable all-electric car:
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