Global Economy Seeing Modest Growth with Positive Outlook

News: Global

2023-10-23

Global Economy Seeing Modest Growth with Positive Outlook

GLOBAL REPORT
Jim Downey

SUMMARY. Many factors are pointing to modest growth in Q3 2023. This should lead to total production globally growing at +2.4% in 2023 vs 2022 (it was 2.6% in Q2 2023), and the outlook for the next few years remains positive with growth accelerating from 2025.  Apart from Russia and Ukraine, the main countries to show a decline are South Korea, Slovakia, Netherlands. However, the segment picture shows some differences.

Several drivers are influencing the global economic picture.

  • Fuel prices eased earlier this year, recently they have grown slightly and are no longer showing signs of easing. This remains a serious issue.
  • Supply chains remain constrained and show no signs of improving.
  • The war in Ukraine shows no sign of a speedy conclusion, despite recent successes by Ukraine.
  • Ukrainian exports of wheat, other grains and fertilizer have declined massively following Russia’s ending on the Grain Deal. Alternative routes (overland, and via the Danube) simply don’t have the necessary capacity.
  • Inflation is easing, but it continues to be a major concern for central banks as they consider raising their interest rates. This will pose a risk to economic growth in all regions. Inflation and price increases are putting OEMs in a difficult situation.
  • Risk of recession continues in the background for several countries, notably China, USA and Germany, and this could drag other countries into recession.
  • Covid is still lingering with global deaths now at over 6.9 million, and a new variant has the medical world concerned.
  • Latent demand for machinery keeps building, which is a positive sign.
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2023-09-15

Strong E-Bike Market Growth Seen

The pandemic bike boom boosted e-bike sales 145% from 2019 to 2020, more than double the rate of classic bikes, according to the market research firm NPD Group.

Research by Power Systems Research estimates the global e-bike market size at US$ 23.2B in 2022 and expects the market to reach US$ 78B by 2030, exhibiting a CAGR of 10.5%.

E-bikes are bicycles equipped with electrical motors for transforming electrical energy into mechanical energy to assist pedaling. They use rechargeable batteries that require minimum maintenance and provide power to the motor.

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Hydrogen Fuel Cell MH Commercial Vehicle Update

Chris Fisher
Chris Fisher

With regards to zero-emission medium and heavy vehicles, we have heard during the past few years that battery electric commercial trucks will ultimately replace the diesel-powered internal combustion engine for commercial trucks.  At some point in the future this might be true for short and regional haul freight carriers but what about the long-haul heavy truck segment? 

Currently, the lack of charging infrastructure, range anxiety and the extreme weights associated with the batteries will be a significant deterrent to mass adoption of long-haul battery electric trucks.  However, hydrogen fuel cell trucks for long-haul applications appear to be a viable option in this segment.  Even though fuel cell trucks currently have a greater range and lighter weight than battery electric trucks, they have the same problem as electric trucks due to a lack of a power infrastructure.

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2023-07-27

Q2 2023 Economic Update Is Mostly Positive

GLOBAL REPORT
Guy Youngs
Guy Youngs

SUMMARY. There are several factors that could contribute to modest growth in the second half of this year as we await final numbers for the quarter. This should lead to total production globally growing at +2.6% in 2023 (vs 2022). Given this 2023 growth, the outlook for the years into 2028 remains positive.

Apart from Russia and Ukraine, the main country to show a decline is South Korea, while Japan is barely positive. However, the segment picture shows some differences.

  • Fuel prices have eased recently, but they remain a serious concern.
  • Supply chains remain constrained.
  • The war in Ukraine shows no sign of a speedy conclusion, despite recent successes by Ukraine.
  • Ukrainian exports of wheat, other grains and fertilizer continue but are still low compared to pre-war levels.
  • Inflation continues to be a concern and central banks are raising their interest rates. This will pose a risk to economic growth in all regions. Inflation and price increases are putting OEMs in a tricky situation.
  • Risk of recession appears in several countries including the USA and Germany.
  • Covid is still lingering with global deaths now at over 6.9 million, but the death rate has slowed considerably.
  • Latent demand for machinery keeps bursting out into the open.
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VW Claims New Dry Battery Process Is Money-Saver

Battery technology is constantly evolving as scientists, and vehicle and battery manufacturers seek to improve battery technology that will lead to less expensive electric cars with longer range and faster charging times. In the latest development, Volkswagen says it has come up with a new dry coating process that will allow it to lower the price of its electric cars by several hundred dollars. Dry coating reduces energy consumption in the production of battery cells by 30%, which could lower the cost of electric cars by several hundred dollars per vehicle.

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What Is the Future of Alternative Power?

Guy Youngs
Guy Youngs

Making the switch from diesel powered machines to a low carbon option is not as simple as some would argue. Switching to electric has drawbacks such as their modest power density, which currently holds back their ability to power heavy equipment for a full working day. Cost is another important consideration.

So, what about HVO (Hydrotreated Vegetable Oil)? HVO, which is of particular interest to many equipment manufacturers, is obtained from cooking oil waste, grease and fat residues, waste fats and vegetable oil. The manufacture and use of HVO is nearly climate-neutral when only renewable energy sources are used in the production process. The problem with this fuel is its availability.

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Ammonia-Powered Fuel Cell Developed for Deep Sea Shipping

ShipFC is the project financed by the Union European program Horizon 2020 and Hydrogen Europe aiming to prove that fuel cells powered by green ammonia can meet the strict IMO standards of zero-emission Deep Sea shipping.

Currently, a 100% zero-emission solution is not available in this segment. Batteries do not last longue enough with a size that can fit a ship onboard, and Hydrogen technology has some other challenging issues to resolve. Alternative fuel solutions are promising but still need to be tested, confirmed, and approved by DNA.

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2023-06-23

Alternative Power Report, June 2023

PSR Alt Power Report_June2023.FDownload

There’s plenty of news about global EV battery activities in the June issue of the Alternative Power Report produced by Power Systems Research. Read about the battery recycling operation planned for Europe, the controversy over energy use between advocates of Hydrogen and batteries and much more.

2023-06-19

Global Electric Scooter Market Could Reach $56B in 2033

GLOBAL REPORT
Michael Aistrup
Michael Aistrup

The global electric scooter market is growing at a rate that will enable it to surpass $56 billion by the end of 2033, according to a forecast by. Power Systems Research. The forecast predicts a projected growth rate of 9.72% by 2033.

This high growth rate is attributed to the rising demand for electric vehicles because of the increasing worldwide population.

An Electric Vehicle (EV) is a vehicle that runs on electricity/battery power. Electric vehicles have low running costs due to fewer moving parts and are environmentally friendly as they use little or no fossil fuels. Some EVs use lead-acid or nickel-metal hydride batteries, but lithium-ion batteries are now used in battery-powered electric vehicles for their long life, excellent energy storage, and low self-discharge rate.

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