The Future of Commercial Vehicles. Perspectives for Brazil

News: Central/South America

2020-09-22

The Future of Commercial Vehicles. Perspectives for Brazil

Published in Automotive Business, August, 26, 2020

1. INTRODUCTION

The use of diesel in Commercial Vehicles and its alternatives has been studied and discussed globally over the past two decades. We have updated future trends annually based on the new platforms in our data and new models in development allowing us a 10-year horizon. In August 2019 we published an article on the subject for Automotive Business Brazil, which is now updating.

Carlos Briganti
Carlos Briganti

In the 2019 article we said that fossil diesel propulsion for commercial vehicles would be exposed to several alternatives and therefore the 20s decade would be a decade of significant changes, justifying yearly monitoring of the subject.

This whole range of studies was then impacted by COVID-19, a new event at the beginning of this decade that is another factor of change in this complex subject.

Read More»

2020-08-23

ANFAVEA Negotiates To Postpone PROCONVE P8 in Brazil

With the problems caused by COVID-19, ANFAEA is lobbying to postpone the introduction of PROCONVE P8 – an emissions regulation that will make the Brazil emissions level similar to Euro VI.

Fabio Ferraresi
Fabio Ferraresi

ANFAVEA argues that the postponement is needed because of delays in testing and engineering development caused by COVID-19. The level of investment necessary also has increased.

Source: Automotive Business     Read The Article

PSR Analysis:  The Brazilian government is not likely to approve the postponement and the deadline date of 2022 probably will be kept. It is important to Brazil to be current in terms of emissions as Brazil is a hub of production for South America, and the ability to export will be jeopardized if the level of production technology declines.  PSR

Fabio Ferraresi is Director Business Development South America for Power Systems Research

Higher Octane Gasoline Offered in Brazil

Fabio Ferraresi
Fabio Ferraresi

The new specs as per ANP 087/20 resolution determines the minimum density of 715 kg/m3 and minimum octanes of 92 RON. In January 2022, it will be 93 RON. The Ethanol mix was kept in 27% for regular gasoline and 25% for premium gasolines.

Source: UOL     Read The Article

PSR Analysis: With the use of Ethanol in the mix, Brazil gasoline specs get closer to Europe and USA. The goal is to improve the consumption 6% and reduce failures in engines. This may reduce barriers for imported engines and reduce the cost of “tropicalization” of engines.

Fabio Ferraresi is Director Business Development South America for Power Systems Research

2020-07-26

Brazil CE Sales To Grow 15% Despite COVID

Fabio Ferraresi
Fabio Ferraresi

Construction Equipment Internal Sales in Brazil from January thru May grew 35% over the same period of 2019. The Brazilian Machinery Builders´ Association (ABIMAQ)  expects 2020 sales to hit 20,000 machines, 15% more than in 2019.

Source: Valor Econônico      Read The Article

PSR Analysis: The Construction segment was the less affected by the pandemic than some other segments. The interest reduction directed investment to real state, especially housing, and some measures, such as the new regulation for sanitation, recently approved by the parliament, will boost the Construction business in 2020 and more significantly in the coming years. PSR

Read More»

John Deere Starts Grader Production in Brazil

Fabio Ferraresi
Fabio Ferraresi

John Deere announced the start of production of G series of Graders in Brazil in the coming months. It had previously imported these units. With the movement, John Deere will attend the South American Market with 90% of products made in Brazil.

Source: AutoData     Read The Article

PSR Analysis:  The decision of nationalization started in 2018 and makes more sense with recent local currency depreciation. With this movement, Deere will be more competitive in delivery time and it will have some room for margins and pricing variation, what will lead to a moderate growth of share in the market, what is already reflected in our databases forecast.

COVID19 Special Report – Brazil Market Update

Power Systems Research published in the June 13  issue of Automotive Business magazine a high level update on perspectives of MHV and Off-Highway segments. See the article at the link below and translated presentation.

Carlos Briganti
Carlos Briganti

Source: PSR at Automotive Business     Read The Article

PSR Analysis: Although ANFAVEA published a decreased forecast, we believe that the decrease will be lower than the Light Vehicles decrease. Metrics we follow, such as Diesel consumption and the number of Vehicles going through tolls by weight category, show a lower impact in Commercial Vehicles. Other factors: a smaller than expected reduction during the pandemic isolation, agribusiness remaining strong and a lower than expected impact on mining/construction.

Carlos Briganti Is Managing Director, Power Systems Research – SA

2020-05-15

Brazilian Production and Sales of Commercial Vehicles Won’t Recover Until 2021

Power Systems Research analyzes markets of trucks, buses, agricultural and construction machines

Brazil deaths caused by coronavirus increased sharply in April and May 2020.

Slump Caused by COVID-19 Will Last into 2021

The overall slump in production and sales of heavy commercial vehicles (trucks and buses) as well as for agricultural and construction machines should last throughout this year; these segments won’t recover until 2021.  PSR

Automotive Business – April 2020 – English version

2020-04-25

First FOTON Produced in New Brazil Plant

The first units of the 3.5-ton LCV have been assembled at the GEFCO Plant in Guaíba-RS as the company begins producing under a manufacturing contract for Foton.

Source: AutoData     Read The Article

PSR Analysis: 

Despite this news, the speed of the development of the new line will be reduced by COVID-19 and related factors, including the social restrictions and workforce mobility, the impact in the LCV segment and also the lack of parts from China, major part of the content of these Trucks.     PSR

Q1 2020 Motorcycle Production in Brazil Was Strong But Will Drop in April

Different from the segments with 4 wheels or more, Motorcycles plants worked normally in March. The total production has been of 296 k motorcycles in the first quarter, about 7% above the same period of 2019. However, the stops in this sector started March 30 and will remain until the beginning of May.

Source: AutoData     Read The Article

PSR Analysis:

Although motorcycles are also a way of delivering packages in big Cities, sales of motorcycles in Brazil have a closer relationship with lower income individuals who see motorcycles as an alternative to bad public transportation or even animal transportation in rural locations.

This segment of the society has a high number of informal jobs, mostly related to service, heavily impacted by the social restriction measurements. Therefore, the impact on this business for the remainder of the year should be considerably high, despite of the growth in the first quarter. PSR