As part of its 2023 Budget, the government has reiterated its focus on capital expenditures, the vehicle scrappage policy, and a reduction in customs duty for electric vehicle components that is designed to stimulate new vehicle sales. A reduction in customs duties and a plan to replace older, polluting vehicles will boost the adoption of green mobility.
“The increase in capex on infrastructure and the emphasis on green growth will help the mobility sector,” said Sudarshan Venu, MD, TVS Motor Company. “This budget gives something to everyone, from rural India and start-up India, to middle-class India and digital India. It is about inclusive growth and building on the recovery we are seeing after the pandemic. It strikes a fine balance between growth and fiscal prudence.”
The January 2023 Alternative Power Report produced by PSR’s Guy Youngs and other analysts at Power Systems Research includes several articles on hydrogen power. New applications of hydrogen power from construction to marine are discussed in this issue. Plans by OEMs Audi and BMW for new EV cars also are discussed. PSR
According to newly published research by Interact Analysis, hydrogen internal combustion engines (H2 ICE) are forecast to be sold in 220,000 vehicles in 2035.
On the plus side, H2 ICE vehicles have some notable advantages. The engine technology is reasonably similar to diesel engines, enabling use of existing knowledge, design and production vehicles. The vehicles can deliver high power, work with impure fuel, work in dirty and dusty conditions and refuel quickly.
On the downside, there is no hydrogen infrastructure in place in almost all locations in the world, there is a lack of awareness about the technology and limited development so far. Most importantly, the current cost of hydrogen fuel is high – it will need a big reduction before the vehicles can become competitive. Even at half the cost of today, H2 ICE vehicles do not have a good total cost of ownership. The cost of the engine is not substantial, but the cost of the tanks adds a lot to the cost of the vehicle, then there is infrastructure and above all hydrogen fuel.
Hyundai Motor Company is getting serious about developing the software needed for automated driving, etc. It has decided to invest $14.7 billion by 2030 and has begun building a development structure and embarking on M&A.
Hyundai Motor Company has achieved record profits through a shift in strategy in conjunction with a generational change. The company plans to further improve profitability in the software field, where customers can add functions to their cars after purchase. But acquiring human resources will be an immediate challenge for Hyundai.
The “Over the Air (OTA)” function, which updates the latest software via the Internet, will be standard on all new models released in 2023 and after. The plan is to establish a system that allows users to be charged according to function updates. The company will first introduce content such as car navigation systems, audio, lighting, and remote-control functions, and then expand into peripheral areas such as auto insurance policies, to diversify and upgrade services in response to customer needs.
Indonesia plans to introduce a subsidy program to encourage the purchase of EVs starting in 2023. The goal is to increase the number of EV users to 2.5 million by 2025 and reduce air pollution. The EV purchase subsidy program will be added to the list of EV policies introduced by President Joko Widodo over the past year.
Transportation Minister Boudi Karya Sumadi said the government is also considering subsidies for retrofitting internal combustion engine vehicles, but the government is carefully considering this plan because it would bring major changes to the labor-intensive auto industry. The Ministry of Transport plans to approach existing Indonesian automakers, such as South Korea’s Hyundai Motor and China’s BYD, to create an EV ecosystem for Borneo’s new capital city, he said.
Read the expanded December 20222 Alternative Power Report produced by PSR’s Guy Youngs and other analysts at Power Systems Research. This month’s report includes articles on increased battery production in the US., Tesla’s plans for a recycling plant in Texas, increased merger activity in the EV Light/Medium commercial vehicle segment and new power sources being developed for cargo ships.
Korean battery giant SK Innovation announced that it will expand its supply of batteries to Hyundai Motor Group in North America, and the two companies will discuss the construction of a joint venture plant to increase supply after 2025. SK Innovation says it plans to support Hyundai Motor Group’s increased EV production in North America.
In addition to EV production at its existing Alabama plant, Hyundai Motor plans to start operations of a dedicated EV plant in Georgia by 2025. Kia Motors, a group company, will also increase EV production in Georgia, as stable procurement of batteries, a key component of EVs, has become an issue.
SK On, a battery subsidiary of SK Innovation, already supplies batteries for Hyundai Motor’s mainstay Ioniq EV series. In the U.S., SK On produces batteries at its existing Georgia plant, and after consulting with Hyundai Motor, the company will decide whether to expand the plant or establish a new joint venture plant.
Honda announced that it will produce electric fuel cell powered vehicles in the U.S. in 2024. They will also be equipped with a plug-in function that allows them to be recharged externally. Honda has set a goal that all new vehicles sold by 2040 will be either EVs or FCVs.
In North America, its main market, Honda will offer FCVs as an option. The new FCV to be produced is based on the CR-V SUV model and will be manufactured in small quantities at the Performance Manufacturing Center in Ohio. The plant had produced the Acura NSX sports car until November. Since the plant has not yet developed a sufficient hydrogen supply base, it will be a plug-in FCV that can also be recharged externally. This is said to be the first production vehicle in North America to adopt such technology.
Honda has been developing FCVs for some time, introducing the FCX in 2002 in Japan and the United States. In Japan, it launched the FCV model Clarity Fuel Cell in 2016. However, due to sluggish sales, the company discontinued production of this vehicle in Japan in 2021.
PSR Analysis: Plug-in FCVs can run on electricity, fed by plug-ins, where there are no hydrogen stations. If FCVs are to be popularized at a stage where the hydrogen filling infrastructure is weak, a plug-in that can be charged from an electrical outlet may be the best combination. After filling up at a hydrogen station, which might be located far away, the vehicle could be operated by recharging its battery, and the hydrogen could be used as a range extender in case of power shortages. Of course, if a hydrogen station were to be established in the same neighborhood, it would be possible to switch to the same operation as at a gas station. The biggest barrier to sales expansion is the price. In the price competition, FCVs will probably lose out to BEVs. The availability and scale of subsidies for FCVs will have a significant impact on sales. PSR
Akihiro Komuro is Research Analyst, Far East and Southeast Asia, for Power Systems Research
The development trend for the new energy vehicle (EVs) market remained positive through 2022. In November, retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 598,000 units, with a year-on-year growth of 58.2%. From January to November, the domestic retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles were 5.03 million units, with a year-on-year growth of 100.1%.
As for December, the Passenger Transport Federation believes that the subsidy for new energy vehicles will decline by 12,600 RMB this year, which is much more than the decline of 5000 RMB in the previous two years. In addition, some vehicle enterprises have announced a price increase for next year, which may promote strong pre-buying of new energy vehicles at the end of the year and boost sales.
This year, the new energy vehicle market is expected to achieve the annual sales of 6.5 million vehicles.
Tesla is currently working on a lithium refinery project that would be coming to Corpus Christi, Texas, and it sounds like the automaker is in the final stretch of its negotiations with the authorities.
In September, we learned that Tesla has a plan to build a lithium refining facility on the Gulf Coast of Texas. At the time, all we knew was that Tesla was planning on moving fast with hope to start building in Q4 2022.
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