The Future of Commercial Vehicles. Perspectives for Brazil

News: Industry Segments

2020-09-22

The Future of Commercial Vehicles. Perspectives for Brazil

Published in Automotive Business, August, 26, 2020

1. INTRODUCTION

The use of diesel in Commercial Vehicles and its alternatives has been studied and discussed globally over the past two decades. We have updated future trends annually based on the new platforms in our data and new models in development allowing us a 10-year horizon. In August 2019 we published an article on the subject for Automotive Business Brazil, which is now updating.

Carlos Briganti
Carlos Briganti

In the 2019 article we said that fossil diesel propulsion for commercial vehicles would be exposed to several alternatives and therefore the 20s decade would be a decade of significant changes, justifying yearly monitoring of the subject.

This whole range of studies was then impacted by COVID-19, a new event at the beginning of this decade that is another factor of change in this complex subject.

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2020-08-23

ANFAVEA Negotiates To Postpone PROCONVE P8 in Brazil

With the problems caused by COVID-19, ANFAEA is lobbying to postpone the introduction of PROCONVE P8 – an emissions regulation that will make the Brazil emissions level similar to Euro VI.

Fabio Ferraresi
Fabio Ferraresi

ANFAVEA argues that the postponement is needed because of delays in testing and engineering development caused by COVID-19. The level of investment necessary also has increased.

Source: Automotive Business     Read The Article

PSR Analysis:  The Brazilian government is not likely to approve the postponement and the deadline date of 2022 probably will be kept. It is important to Brazil to be current in terms of emissions as Brazil is a hub of production for South America, and the ability to export will be jeopardized if the level of production technology declines.  PSR

Fabio Ferraresi is Director Business Development South America for Power Systems Research

Higher Octane Gasoline Offered in Brazil

Fabio Ferraresi
Fabio Ferraresi

The new specs as per ANP 087/20 resolution determines the minimum density of 715 kg/m3 and minimum octanes of 92 RON. In January 2022, it will be 93 RON. The Ethanol mix was kept in 27% for regular gasoline and 25% for premium gasolines.

Source: UOL     Read The Article

PSR Analysis: With the use of Ethanol in the mix, Brazil gasoline specs get closer to Europe and USA. The goal is to improve the consumption 6% and reduce failures in engines. This may reduce barriers for imported engines and reduce the cost of “tropicalization” of engines.

Fabio Ferraresi is Director Business Development South America for Power Systems Research

Expansion of “Amkodor-Onego” Plant Started

Currently construction at the plan includes rebuilding of warehouses and administrative buildings in preparation for installation of new crane equipment.

Maxim Sakov
Maxim Sakov

“Amkodor-Onego” LLC was established by Belarus holding “Amkodor” in 2019 following the bankruptcy if the “Onego Tractor Plant”. The plant needed an investor, and “Amkodor” stepped up. “Amkodor” is going to create a site for assembly, and then – for import substituting full cycle production of forestry machines – harvesters, forwarders, etc.

An investment contract was signed in June 2019. Under the contract, full modernization of the warehouses and major overhaul of the buildings are planned. Total cost of the project is estimated by US$ 220 million. The government of Karelia (Russian region) assumed the priority of the project and established several requirements.

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BMW Production Plant Scheduled for Kaliningrad

Maxim Sakov
Maxim Sakov

The launch of new plant with full production capabilities for BMW SUVs is planned for July 2021. According to Kaliningrad officials, the new plant is one of the most important investment projects in the regional processing industry. Autotor holding makes up a significant part of the regional production.

Officials said the enterprise is one of the largest employers and taxpayers in Kaliningrad region. Construction of the plant building is underway, and machinery installation will be started in January 2021. The first car is expected to be produced in July 2021.

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Production of Mercedes-Benz Actros Planned at KAMAZ Plant

Maxim Sakov
Maxim Sakov

Russian production of the clean on-road Mercedes-Benz Actros will start in November at the KAMAZ Naberezhnye Chelny plant. The new truck is being modified by Mercedes to meet Euro-6 standards. At the same time, German engineers are reworking the process of exhaust gases neutralization.

Russian production of Actros will allow Russian fleet-owners to purchase top-quality trucks without extra customs fees. The price and initial availability have not been disclosed.     Read The Article

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Indian Government Allows Registration of EVs Without Batteries

In a bid to promote electric mobility in India, the Indian government now permits sales of EVs without a battery. This step has been taken to reduce the upfront cost of EVs, since the most expensive component in an electric vehicle is the battery pack (which accounts for 40% cost of the total cost).    Read The Article

Aditya Kondejkar

PSR Analysis: We anticipate that electric 2 and 3-wheelers will be the first segments to benefit from this move. This move by the central government will support the FAME-II program and the Delhi government’s latest EV policy, aiming for 5 lakh registrations of EVs in 5 years.

As the upfront cost of the electrical 2 and 3 wheelers will be lower than their ICE counterparts when registered without battery, it will be more attractive to consumers. However, implementation will be critical for the success of this move. As lack of infrastructure was one of the key reasons for customers not opting for EVs.

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Used Construction Equipment Prices Fall in SE Asia, Demand Slows with COVID-19

The prices of used construction equipment continue to fall, and bidding prices at major auctions are 10% lower than in the same period last year. This is due to a decrease in demand from Southeast Asia due to the COVID-19.

Akihiro Komuro
Akihito Komuro

Demand in Japan is steady due to the torrential rains in Kyushu and other factors, but the price decline in overseas markets has lowered the overall market.

Demand in the Philippines and Thailand also declined. In Southeast Asia, demand for cranes and other infrastructure-related equipment has been high for the past few years, but there have been several construction delays and stoppages caused by COVID-19. The average unit price at the crane truck auction was about 6 million yen, a 20% drop from January to March before COVID-19.

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Doosan Sells 10,000 Excavators in China in H1 2020

Doosan Infracore announced that it sold 10,728 hydraulic excavators in China in H1 2020. This is the company’s largest sales volume in nine years since it sold more than 12,000 units in the market in H1 2011. The company sold 1,320 excavators in June, a 23% increase in sales over the previous year.

Akihiro Komuro
Akihito Komuro

China’s hydraulic excavator market suffered a slowdown in the first two months of the year due to COVID-19 but is now consistently showing signs of a rapid recovery. Overall sales in the Chinese hydraulic excavator market exceeded 155,000 units in H1 2020, significantly exceeding the 125,000 units sold nationwide in H1 2019.

Source: Kikai-News (The original article was partially revised by the author.)

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Kubota To Build Factory for Small CN Equipment in US

FAR EAST: JAPAN REPORT

Kubota will invest up to US$ 93.9 Million (10 billion yen) by 2026 to build a factory for small construction equipment in the US. The company will manufacture crawler-driven models used for residential construction and other purposes locally to increase the production by 25%.

Akihiro Komuro
Akihito Komuro

With COVID-19, there is a movement of people moving from the city center to the suburbs in the US. Kubota expects that the demand for small construction equipment will increase in the regions where it has sales channels and aims to become the largest manufacturer in the US by increasing production. First, they will invest 5.6 billion yen (56 Million USD) to build a new factory in Kansas.

The company will start mass production of its “Compact Track Loader (CTL)” in September 2022. By 2023, annual production will reach 3,000 units. Depending upon demand, the company could be producing 5,000 units annually by 2026. Japan is producing about 20,000 of the same model. With the addition of 5,000 units from the United States, the total production will increase by about 25%.

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