Fleet Renewal Program Goes Live in Brazil   

BRAZIL REPORT
Fabio Ferraresi
Fabio Ferraresi

The Brazil Government has published a law starting the Truck and Buses Scrappage Policy, aiming to renew fleets, increase productivity and efficiency, reduce emissions and improve safety. Depending on the effectiveness of the program, it may affect the MHV market. See complete article translated in our webpage and the original from Automotive Business.

Source: Automotive Business    Read The Article

PSR Analysis: The launch of the Renovar program is a positive sign on the path of improving safety, logistics efficiency and environmental impact for Brazil, with genuine and relevant objectives.

Because it is a voluntary program, operating in phases, with regulations and parameters yet to be defined, it is too early to project the effectiveness and impact on the vehicle market.

We believe that Brazil still needs broader legislation for a long-term program with a gradual and geographically differentiated process to restrict the movement of older, less safe trucks and buses with lower efficiency and higher emission levels. Fleet owners, autonomous carriers, OEMs and the entire production chain need predictability for long-term planning to prepare for and assure feasibility for a broad and scheduled fleet renewal. PSR

By Fabio Ferraresi, Director Business Development South Americafor Power Systems Research

Hon Hai Delivers First EV Bus To Kaohsiung City in Taiwan

TAIWAN REPORT

On March 3, Hon Hai Precision Industry delivered its first EV, the Model T commercial bus, to a bus route operator based in Kaohsiung City in southern Taiwan. The company aims to deliver 30 buses by the end of this year to expand its EV business, which is a new entry into the market, and the key to its future growth will be the extent to which it can break away from its business model that relies on contracted production of iPhones.

The “Model T” was delivered to Kaohsiung Bus Company. The vehicle was developed by Hung Hua Advanced Technology, a new company jointly established with Yulon Motor Manufacturing (Yulon), a major Taiwanese car manufacturer. Everything about the Model T, from concept to design and manufacturing, was done in Taiwan.

More than 65% of the parts procured were supplied by members of MIH, a group of more than 1,000 cooperating manufacturers recruited by Hon Hai when it entered the EV market, as well as by Taiwanese manufacturers. The vehicle will begin operating on actual bus routes on March 16, the company said.

Hon Hai also plans to introduce EVs for personal use in the future. In addition to the Model C SUV, which will be the first EV for individuals, the company plans to introduce the Model E, a high-end sedan. The company has already announced a plan to achieve sales of 1 trillion Taiwan dollars (over 4 trillion yen) in five years.

Source: The Nikkei

PSR Analysis: Hon Hai moves very fast. Less than two years after announcing its entry into the EV business, Hon Hai delivered one of the company’s first three EV prototypes in October 2021.

The alliance they founded, MIH, has been in existence for more than a year since October 2020, and more than 2,000 companies from Japan and other countries have joined the development coalition. An alliance of unprecedented scale is about to bring about a major innovation in the automotive industry.

MIH (Mobility in Harmony) is an open EV ecosystem that promotes new collaborations in the mobility industry. MIH brings together strategic partners in the EV field, where the development and manufacturing processes are different from those of conventional vehicles, and promotes the creation of next-generation EVs, autonomous driving, and mobility service applications by opening up advanced hardware and software technologies.

Through the realization of reference designs and standardization of EV technologies, many alliance members intend to jointly create an open EV platform that will bring innovation to the industry by shortening development cycles and lowering barriers to entry.

The number of overseas companies outside of China and Taiwan participating in the MIH continues to increase. In addition to South Korea’s Kia and India’s Mahindra, Tier 1 automakers Continental of Germany and ZF are also participating.

Major players include Microsoft, Arm, LG Electronics, ON Semiconductor, Oracle, Kaspersky Lab, Samsung Electronics, Siemens, TomTom, and Dell Technologies.

At the time of MIH’s inception, the impression was that Taiwanese and Chinese companies accounted for more than 95% of its members, but now, one after another, a diverse group of members have gathered from around the world, greatly enhancing its development capabilities.

The unprecedented scale of the MIH is symbolic of the global interest in next-generation mobility, such as EVs and autonomous driving.

It is easy to imagine that this power of MIH has been a major driving force in the development of the EV buses this time around. All eyes are now focused on the future actions of this huge alliance on an unprecedented scale. PSR

KAMAZ Changes Truck Models Following Daimler’s Exit from Russia

RUSSIA REPORT

March 10, 2022—The KAMAZ plant, which was hit by sanctions, has production orders only until the end of March. Currently, the OEM is working through orders for April and May, according to a company official. Company operations are linked to supplies from Europe, which have been halted, he said.

He also added that production continues, but changes in model range cannot be avoided. The main efforts of the OEM will be concentrated on deeper localization of trucks and rearranging production using local components.

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São Paulo Starts Construction of BRT Aiming Electric Buses

BRAZIL REPORT

The São Paulo Government has announced the start of a BRT line, going through cities surrounding the São Paulo capital city with plans to be operating in 2023. This line has 17 km of extension and will use 82 Battery Electric Articulated 23 meter buses.

Source: M&T      Read The Article

PSR Analysis: The cities surrounding São Paulo Capital have started deploying the initiatives of the main city, as expected. São Paulo City has a more aggressive plan for using BE Buses  with 800 for 2022 and the average of 1600 per year from 2023 to 2032.  PSR

Fabio Ferraresi is Director Business Development South America, for Power Systems Research

Medium and Heavy EV Market In Early Testing

Autonomous Medium and Heavy Commercial Vehicles

Chris Fisher
Chris Fisher

We have been hearing a lot of talk and getting questions on the current status and the future of autonomous vehicles within the medium and heavy segment.

Early adopters of autonomous technology will likely be in the class 8 long haul segment followed by the bus and medium duty truck segment.  Currently, the high cost of the technology can be better absorbed in class 8 long-haul truck applications.

The transition from level 0 to level 1 and 2 is happening relatively quickly due in part to the availability of the technology.  Level 3 adoption is still a few years away and it is currently not legal to use on the highway.  It will likely be 2027 or 2028 before we see small levels of level 3 commercial vehicles on the road.

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Low Interest Funding Set for Low Emission Off-Highway Machines

SOUTH AMERICA REPORT
Fabio Ferraresi
Fabio Ferraresi

The program called Low Carbon FINAME is dedicated to the acquisition of new machines that contribute to carbon emission reduction, with a focus on EV Buses, EV Trucks and Off-Highway Machines electric and Hybrid. OEMs have to register their products before December 2024 to access lower interest rates.

Source: M&T      Read The Article

PSR Analysis: The incentives for funding are an important driver to make an EV competitive when compared to an ICE in Brazil, a country with high interest rates and high cost of capital. Historically, lower interest rates caused high sales and bubbles in key segments as CE and MHV. We are closely monitoring the funding conditions and the impact it will bring to key market segments.  PSR

Fabio Ferraresi is Director, Business Development-South America, for Power Systems

Scania Tests Euro VI Engine in Brazil

SOUTH AMERICA REPORT

The 13 liters with Scania Twin SCR aftertreatment developed in Sweden is tested in Brazil for the new Proconve P8 products, already in place for new models and mandatory for all models by January 2023. The homologation process at IBAMA is already advanced but may show adaption needs to Brazilian environment. This engine is part of a completely new powertrain and brakes system with higher efficiency and lower emission. The power range vary from 420 to 560 hp and it is prepared for HVO use.

Source: Automotive Business     Read The Article

PSR Analysis: The use of edge technology at Scania Trucks in Brazil is in line with the amount of exports Scania makes to Europe and to lower emission regions. The higher efficiency will bring increased sales to South America as fleet owners seek lower fuel consumption. PSR

Fabio Ferraresi is Director, Business Development-South America, for Power Systems Research

Embraer/Eve Formalizes Flying Car Register

SOUTH AMERICA REPORT

Eve Urban Air Mobility, the branch of aircraft giant Embraer, says it has started the process to register its eVTOL, Electric Vertical Take Off and Landing, vehicle at ANAC, the Brazilian bureau for aircraft certification and tied to international bureaus. Getting this documentation is the most important step for starting its commercial operation programmed for 2026. With this certification Eve will meet international standards of air navigation and safety.

Source: Automotive Business      Read The Article

PSR Analysis: Although the aircraft business is not exactly at the scope of products we currently cover, this launch will impact the mobility industry and we are monitoring it closely. Eve has already set 17 partnerships and has a booking of 1700 units, more than many EV makers making a lot of noise in the industry and media.   PSR

Fabio Ferraresi is Director, Business Development South America, for Power Systems Research

NA Medium and Heavy EV Market In Early Testing

Chris Fisher
Chris Fisher

Q. What is the current state of electric vehicle technology globally as well as the U.S.?
A.
From a medium and heavy truck perspective, electric trucks are still in the early stages of testing, and it will still be a few years before we know if the current technology will be effective.  Transit or city buses are much further along in the process since these are largely not for profit vehicles and have more dedicated routes that allow for more consistent recharge. 

China is probably the furthest along with electric bus adoption with almost half of all medium and heavy buses produced being electric.  While electrified bus adoption in North America and Europe is not nearly as strong as China, demand is increasing.  In North America, natural gas buses (CNG and Propane) are currently the alternative fuel of choice.  However, government mandates will likely force bus electrification over the next decade or so.

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Truck Production Index (PSR-TPI) Loses 37%

Jim Downey
Jim Downey
Chris Fisher
Chris Fisher

ST. PAUL, MN — The Q4 2021 Power Systems Research Truck Production Index (PSR-TPI) increased from 116 to 120, or 3.4%, for the three-month period ended December 31,2021, from Q3 2021. The year-over-year (Q4 2020 to Q4 2021) loss for the PSR-TPI was, 190 to 120, or -37%.

The PSR-TPI measures truck production globally and across six regions: North America, China, Europe, South America, Japan and Korea and Emerging Markets.

This data comes from OE Link™, the proprietary database maintained by Power Systems Research.

Global Index: We expect global production volumes in 2022 to gain 3.7% vs 2021, with a positive trend in all regions, except for China, where we expect production volumes to be down -3.6% in 2022 vs 2021. China experienced a surge in demand during 2020 due to the change in emissions regulations, so 2021 was down significantly, about 20%.

All Regions: Global demand for Medium and Heavy Commercial Vehicles (MHV) rebounded in 2021 but overall growth in the segment was flat. Going forward, we expect the growth to accelerate in 2022 and 2023. The exceptions to this rebound trend are in China and India, which continue to decline and sharply drive overall global production numbers into negative territory.

North America: While supply chain disruptions continue to negatively impact the commercial vehicle market, medium and heavy commercial vehicle production is expected to finish 2021 15.8% higher than 2020. The forecasted production growth rate is expected to continue to show improvement through 2023 as supply chain disruptions ease and truck capacity in the market begins to align with demand. The disruption in the supply chain and on-going issues with COVID will continue to impact the market in 2022.    PSR

Jim Downey is Vice President-Global Data Products and Chris Fisher is Senior Commercial Vehicle Analyst at Power Systems Research