Fastest NA Economic Growth Expected Since 1980s

News: Economics

2021-04-25

Fastest NA Economic Growth Expected Since 1980s

Read the complete report in April PowerTALK™ News.

Yosyf Sheremeta
Yosyf Sheremeta

(April 1, 2021)–After the GDP declined 3.5% last year, the worst performance in almost 75 years, the US economy is set for a strong comeback.  In fact, we could see GDP growth exceeding 6% this year.

There are many reasons to be optimistic about 2021.  Strong readings of macro-economic factors combined with the economic cycle reset backed by the government initiatives and policies support our estimates for the current year and beyond. 

Our positive outlook is based on the reviews of the key economic indicators, including GDP, unemployment, and inflation.   In our previous forecasts, we discussed recovery trends for the post-pandemic period, stating a return of demand for most markets in 2021, especially during H2 2021.  

Based on our analysis of the expected growth trend and the economic reviews in major publications, we think US growth can surpass the growth level from 1984 – the highest one since 1950s. 

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2021-04-10

PSR Partners With HDMA In Webinar

Current and Future Supply Chain Concerns For Medium and Heavy Vehicles Will Be Discussed

Erik Martin
Erik Martin
Chris Fisher
Chris Fisher

Power Systems Research will produce a one-hour webinar with the Heavy Duty Manufacturers Association (HDMA) discussing current and future supply chain concerns, especially as they affect Medium and Heavy Commercial Vehicles. 

When? Wednesday, April 21, 2021 from 1:00 – 2:00 pm ET

What? Future areas of supply chain concerns, secondary effects of logistic and shipping issues, and current economic conditions and demand drivers.

How much? FREE for HDMA members; $100 for non-members

The scheduled presenters include

  • Chris Fisher – Senior Commercial Vehicle Analyst, Power Systems Research
  • Erik Martin – Director, Asia Region, Power Systems Research
  • Richard Anderson – Director, Market Research & Analysis, HDMA

How do I register? By clicking below!

Space is limited, so please register as soon as possible using the REGISTER NOW button on the HDMA website at www.hdma.org. If you are not a PSR Client or HDMA Member, an individual registration is $100.

Hope you can participate. During the session, we’ll discuss the future areas of supply chain concerns, secondary effects of logistic and shipping issues, and current economic conditions and demand drivers, especially as they apply to Medium and Heavy Vehicles. 

Richard Anderson will present the latest findings from his current PULSE member survey, and the session will conclude with a participant Q&A. PSR

2021-01-24

GM Resumes $2 Billion Investment Program in Brazil

After freezing all investment last year due to the Covid-19 pandemic, GM is now resuming its investment program of 10 billion of Brazilian Reais, equivalent to US$ 2 billion. The program funds new vehicles, infotainment systems, as well as modernization of the plants in Sao Paulo state.

Read The Article

PSR Analysis: GM has kept and amplified their market leadership position in Brazil. In 2020, they moved into second place. Their continuous investment on new products and productivity has been recognized by the market.   PSR

Fabio Ferraresi is Director Business Development, South America, for Power Systems Research

2021-01-22

NA Economic Outlook: Slower H1 2021, But Much Stronger H2 2021 Expected

Yosyf Sheremeta
Yosyf Sheremeta

SUMMARY.  In our previous forecasts, we have discussed some hope for a V-shaped recovery, it did not materialize.  Our conclusion was based on several factors, such as the current economic cycle, overall strength of the economy, fiscal policy, political landscape in the US and globally, etc. After managing through the early stages of the pandemic in H1 2020, we saw good trends in H2 2020 and we had reasons to be optimistic for a quick recovery.

However, the recovery took a slight pause during the last few months.  Unemployment continued to increase, and regional lockdowns prevented the necessary demand for a significant year-end growth.  Now that the elections are over, we’ll have yet to see what the new administration will be able to achieve during the next two years.  Specifically, if the long awaited infrastructure reform can be passed.  However, fiscal policy with near zero interest rates, which government has promised to keep in place for the near future, will provide a good platform for the economic recovery and allow us to look optimistically into 2021-2022.

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2020-10-23

Global Recovery: Opportunities and Challenges

SUMMARY. The global economy, especially within the Engine, OEM and Components industries, has felt the immediate impact from COVID: assembly line shutdowns, labor issues, supply chain issues, logistics and transportation to name a few.  The pandemic has exposed many weak links in the global economic chain. However, by end of summer, most of these challenges were either completely resolved or temporary solutions had been put in place. 

Yosyf Sheremeta
Yosyf Sheremeta

Diversification has become the theme during the pandemic recovery, and we expect this trend to continue.  Not only are companies looking for new markets and suppliers to grow top and bottom line revenue as well as to minimize risks, but we see a shift into new industries.  Furthermore, rapid developments of new technologies create massive opportunities for OEMs and suppliers as well as posing real threats to OEMs that solely rely on traditional products that are powered by fossil fuels. 

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2020-05-24

Southeast Asia: COVID-19 Stalls China’s Belt and Road Initiative

Southeast Asia’s infrastructure development has begun to stall. China, which has been supporting the project, has been unable to proceed with its Belt and Road initiative for a broad economic zone due to restrictions on movement caused by the new coronavirus.

Akihiro Komuro
Akihito Komuro

Southeast Asian countries also are prioritizing infection control and curbing the funds and human resources they invest in development. A major delay in the construction of infrastructure, which is the foundation of growth, could force foreign investors to reconsider their investment plans.

In Indonesia, work on a high-speed railway (about 140 kilometers) linking the capital Jakarta with the major city of Bandung was recently halted. The project is financed by a Chinese bank, and the state-owned company is involved in the construction. The opening is expected to be postponed from the scheduled 2021.

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2020-04-04

Unprecedented Times Call for Extraordinary Measures

Download our special report CORONAVIRUS, Impact on the global production for engines and powered equipment. Available April 15, 2020.

Joe Zirnhelt
Joe Zirnhelt

Over the first quarter of 2020 the concern over the coronavirus has grown each week.  Since first hearing the news out of China and the virus’ spread to South Korea, we have been able to observe the effects on supply chains and production.  

Time is of the essence

Although news and concern increased since that time, the week of March 10 and the classification of the coronavirus as a pandemic by the World Health Organization dramatically shifted many measures into action across the globe.

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2020-02-25

We Expect 2020 NA Overall OEM Production To Be Flat

This article initially appeared in the February 2020 issue of PowerTALK News.

SUMMARY.  The North American economy remained stable in 2019 and pure economic conditions as well as fundamentals in the region were favorable. Most industries performed very well, and the short-term outlook remains stable to flat for most market segments. However, we see many new developments that could suggest a shift in the trend.

Yosyf Sheremeta
Yosyf Sheremeta

Consumer confidence declined slightly in December, following a moderate increase in November.  The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index stood at 126.5 in December, 1.4 points higher than in September 2019. 

Per Lynn Franco, Senior Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board: “While consumers’ assessment of current conditions improved, their expectations declined, driven primarily by a softening in their short-term outlook regarding jobs and financial prospects. While the economy hasn’t shown signs of further weakening, there is little to suggest that growth, and in particular consumer spending, will gain momentum in early 2020.”

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New India Budget Disappoints Auto Industry

This article initially appeared in the February 2020 issue of PowerTALK News.

Source: Business Today   Read The Article

Ritvik Kulkarni
Ritvik Kulkarni

PSR Analysis: The Indian Automotive Industry was largely left disappointed with the budget after no direct steps were taken to arrest the decline in automotive sales. Although keeping long term benefits in mind, the budget did introduce measures to boost the rural economy, which in turn will directly benefit the commercial vehicle industry which is an important driver for the economy.

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2020-02-04

Near Term Recession Fears Recede in North America

SUMMARY.  The North American economy remained stable in 2019 and pure economic conditions as well as fundamentals in the region were favorable. Most industries performed very well, and the short-term outlook remains stable to flat for most market segments. However, we see many new developments that could suggest a shift in the trend.

Yosyf Sheremeta
Yosyf Sheremeta

Consumer confidence declined slightly in December, following a moderate increase in November.  The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index stood at 126.5 in December, 1.4 points higher than in September 2019. 

Per Lynn Franco, Senior Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board: “While consumers’ assessment of current conditions improved, their expectations declined, driven primarily by a softening in their short-term outlook regarding jobs and financial prospects. While the economy hasn’t shown signs of further weakening, there is little to suggest that growth, and in particular consumer spending, will gain momentum in early 2020.”

Read More»