Europe May Slap Retroactive Tariffs on Chinese EVs

News: Economics

2023-10-23

Global Economy Seeing Modest Growth with Positive Outlook

GLOBAL REPORT
Jim Downey

SUMMARY. Many factors are pointing to modest growth in Q3 2023. This should lead to total production globally growing at +2.4% in 2023 vs 2022 (it was 2.6% in Q2 2023), and the outlook for the next few years remains positive with growth accelerating from 2025.  Apart from Russia and Ukraine, the main countries to show a decline are South Korea, Slovakia, Netherlands. However, the segment picture shows some differences.

Several drivers are influencing the global economic picture.

  • Fuel prices eased earlier this year, recently they have grown slightly and are no longer showing signs of easing. This remains a serious issue.
  • Supply chains remain constrained and show no signs of improving.
  • The war in Ukraine shows no sign of a speedy conclusion, despite recent successes by Ukraine.
  • Ukrainian exports of wheat, other grains and fertilizer have declined massively following Russia’s ending on the Grain Deal. Alternative routes (overland, and via the Danube) simply don’t have the necessary capacity.
  • Inflation is easing, but it continues to be a major concern for central banks as they consider raising their interest rates. This will pose a risk to economic growth in all regions. Inflation and price increases are putting OEMs in a difficult situation.
  • Risk of recession continues in the background for several countries, notably China, USA and Germany, and this could drag other countries into recession.
  • Covid is still lingering with global deaths now at over 6.9 million, and a new variant has the medical world concerned.
  • Latent demand for machinery keeps building, which is a positive sign.
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2023-08-20

U.S. Economic Downturn this Year or Next?

Jim Downey

SUMMARY. As we are halfway through 2023, there is more uncertainty with the economy than earlier in the year. The general consensus is there will be a recession coming soon in the United States, and now it is just a matter of whether this will happen later in 2023 or the first of part of 2024.

The latter may be more assumed recently. The stock market has not fallen, and the US economy has not entered a recession this year, 2023. Some of the factors that have prevented this are market investors being enthusiastic over AI (Artificial Intelligence) potential, the Federal Reserve’s pause in interest rate increases, and the slowdown of inflation. So seemingly the pause button has been hit on recession scenarios.

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2023-07-27

Q2 2023 Economic Update Is Mostly Positive

GLOBAL REPORT
Guy Youngs
Guy Youngs

SUMMARY. There are several factors that could contribute to modest growth in the second half of this year as we await final numbers for the quarter. This should lead to total production globally growing at +2.6% in 2023 (vs 2022). Given this 2023 growth, the outlook for the years into 2028 remains positive.

Apart from Russia and Ukraine, the main country to show a decline is South Korea, while Japan is barely positive. However, the segment picture shows some differences.

  • Fuel prices have eased recently, but they remain a serious concern.
  • Supply chains remain constrained.
  • The war in Ukraine shows no sign of a speedy conclusion, despite recent successes by Ukraine.
  • Ukrainian exports of wheat, other grains and fertilizer continue but are still low compared to pre-war levels.
  • Inflation continues to be a concern and central banks are raising their interest rates. This will pose a risk to economic growth in all regions. Inflation and price increases are putting OEMs in a tricky situation.
  • Risk of recession appears in several countries including the USA and Germany.
  • Covid is still lingering with global deaths now at over 6.9 million, but the death rate has slowed considerably.
  • Latent demand for machinery keeps bursting out into the open.
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