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With 25,000 units shipped in January 2021, exports of vehicles grow 21.9 % compared with January 2020 and 24.2% compared with December 2020. The volume surprised ANFAVEA, which was expecting worse numbers because of the effects of the pandemic in the South American Countries, traditional destinations for Brazilian vehicle exports.
PSR Analysis: This result is positive compared to our initial forecast of a slow recovery of South American countries. On the other hand, the production in countries such as Argentina and Colombia has been affected by a shortage of raw materials, creating an opportunity for imports from Brazil in these countries, even with lower demand. PSR
Fabio Ferraresi is Director, Business Development-South America, for Power Systems Research.
Manaus-AM had the biggest impact of COVID 19 in Brazil and it is where Honda and other Motorcycle OEMs have production plants. Honda, responsible for over 80% of the production, had to stop twice in January due to the pandemic effects. The consequence is that the production in January 2021 fell by 50% when compared with January 2020 and by 27% when compared with December 2020.
PSR Analysis: The demand for motorcycles remains high and the forecast is 10% growth over 2020. These stops are punctual. Volumes should be recovered as pandemic effects slow down during 2021 with the vaccines and the growth forecast is kept so far. PSR
Fabio Ferraresi is Director – Business Development, South America, for Power Systems Research
Ford announced on Jan. 11 plans to shut down all car manufacturing operations in Brazil. Ford produced cars in Camaçari-BA, Taubaté-SP, and off-road vehicles (Troller) in Horizonte-CE.
The company will keep selling vehicles, especially the Ford Ranger, produced in Argentina and other products from other locations, such as the Transit, Bronco and Escape. Because of this action, Ford Expects an impact of US$ 4.1 billion in non-recurring expenses and a US$ 2.5 billion cash impact.
After freezing all investment last year due to the Covid-19 pandemic, GM is now resuming its investment program of 10 billion of Brazilian Reais, equivalent to US$ 2 billion. The program funds new vehicles, infotainment systems, as well as modernization of the plants in Sao Paulo state.
PSR Analysis: GM has kept and amplified their market leadership position in Brazil. In 2020, they moved into second place. Their continuous investment on new products and productivity has been recognized by the market. PSR
Fabio Ferraresi is Director Business Development, South America, for Power Systems Research
Agrale plans to soon start production of electric trucks with the FNM brand, a Brazilian OEM that operated from 1939 to 1979. These trucks will target urban distribution and will be produced at Unit 2 of Agrale, in Caxias do Sul-RS. The Trucks use the base of trucks Agrale completed with an electric propulsion system.
PSR Analysis: It is hard to say how many Electric Trucks will be sold under the FNM Brand and Agrale production and when they will be produced. However, the FNM brand appeal is echoing in the press and the electric propulsion for urban deliver seems to put Agrale in the right track. The cost of battery/vehicle and timing will be keys for success, as well as public bids that may sell a significant number of units.
Cost and infrastructure are the key challenges for electrical vehicles in Brazil. Additionally, Brazil has other alternatives such as BioFuel and/or Hydrogen from NG or Ethanol competing with electrical plug-in vehicles to attend future GHG emission legislation. PSR
Fabio Ferraresi is Director, Business Development, South America, for Power Systems Research
VW Truck and Bus has announced a new cycle of investment in Brazil operations of US$ 400 Million, for the period 2021 to 2025. This is higher than the last investment cycle, that was US$ 300 million that ended in 2020. This investment will be allocated in new products, mainly in alternative propulsion systems, such as electric, and improvements in the production facilities.
PSR Analysis: The investment reinforces VW’s Truck and Bus focus in the Brazilian market. Product development for Proconve P8 in January 2023 will use a significant part of the investment; investments also will be made in facilities adjustments for higher volumes of production in the coming years. PSR
Fabio Ferraresi is Director – Business Development, South America, for Power Systems Research
This investment is dedicated to the new generation of Ford Ranger, produced in Pacheco at the Great Buenos Aires since 1998. 70% of the investment will be for production facilities and 30% in the new product line development.
PSR Analysis: The production in Argentina is mainly for export. The main market for Ranger pickups is Brazil where they will compete with the GM S10 produced in Brazil and the Toyota Hi Lux produced in Argentina. PSR
Fabio Ferraresi is Director, Business Development – South America for Power Systems Research
Recently, European BP, Shell, Equinor and Total signed the agreement to meet the zero net emissions target by 2050. These companies see the Brazilian market as a key component in meeting this goal while they assemble the projects portfolio with Photovoltaic, Offshore Eolic and biofuel.
PSR Analysis: Brazil has a clean matrix and tradition in biofuel tradition since it began using Ethanol in the 70’s and 80’s. Some companies, such as Shell, operate with biofuel in Brazil, producing and distributing Ethanol, and plan to expand this position to meet future emissions targets. PSR
Fabio Ferraresi is Director Business Development – South America for Power Systems Research
Intercity transportation of passengers by highway buses started in a new phase with the beginning of the operation of the first full electric plug in bus. It is Marcopolo Viaggio 1050 bus, assembled on BYD D9A 20.410 chassis, operated by Turis Silva. This initiative is also supported by EDP Smart, a division of Energy Solutions of EDP, a company of the electrical segment.
Ford announced this month the production of the LCV Transit in Uruguay; it will be sold in South America countries, mainly Brazil. The LCV will be built in partnership with Nordex, which belongs to the Antelo group. Both companies have invested around US$ 50 million and the project will create 200 jobs. Nordex has extensive experience in the Uruguay market producing heavy trucks and passenger cars.
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