Heavy truck production in Brazil fell 3.7% in Q1 2025 versus the same period in 2024, totaling 16,700 units, according to Anfavea. The decline is attributed to high interest rates (Selic), which have limited fleet renewal despite a record grain harvest.
Heavy truck sales also dropped 7% in the quarter, with 13,000 units registered.
OEM Performance – Heavy Trucks: Volvo: 3,900 units sold (+4% YoY); Scania: 3,500 units (−17%), and Mercedes-Benz: 2,100 units (−13.5%)
Despite the contraction in the heavy segment, total truck production grew 8.2%, reaching 31,700 units. The Medium-duty truck segment production was 8,900 units (+28.5%) and the Light-duty truck production was 4,500 units (+10%)
March Output: Total truck production was 11,700 units, up 4.5% YoY, but down 2% from February. The growth is attributed to stronger domestic sales and a recovery in exports and reflect a positive trend in the automotive sector, surpassing ANFAVEA disclosed expectation. It is in line with PSR forecast, although we see a market retraction in the second half of the year.
Source: Automotive Business Read The Article
PSR Analysis. High Selic interest rates in Brazil significantly constrained heavy truck demand in Q1 2025, leading to a 3.7% drop in production and 7% decline in sales. The Selic rate is the main reference interest rate in Brazil. Elevated financing costs deterred fleet renewal, particularly in this capital-intensive segment. In contrast, Medium and Light truck segments grew, reflecting lower sensitivity to interest rates. Without monetary easing or credit incentives, the heavy segment is likely to remain suppressed. PSR
Fabio Ferraresi is Director, Business Development, South America, for Power Systems Research
