GLOBAL REPORT
In 2024, medium and heavy commercial vehicle production in Europe, South Asia and North America is expected to decline modestly while production in China, South America, Japan and Korea is expected to improve over last year.
Globally, medium and heavy commercial vehicle production is expected to decline by 1.6% this year over 2023. Moving into 2024, much of the focus on demand is centered around slowing global economic conditions that will likely impact overall freight demand.
North America. Medium and heavy commercial vehicle production is expected to decline by 4.3% this year over 2023 after strong class 8 truck production last year was driven by on-going pent-up demand. While class 8 demand is expected to decline this year, it will still be at a relatively high level, especially during the first part of the year.
Europe. After relatively strong commercial vehicle demand in Europe last year, MHCV production is expected to decline by 11.3% this year compared with 2023. The pent-up demand for heavy trucks has mostly ended and the market is indicative of replacement demand rather than expansion. Power Systems Research expects truck production to slow throughout the remainder of the year, primarily due to re-balanced truck capacity and a slower economy, in part due to on-going inflation and higher interest rates.
South Asia. After a strong level of vehicle replacement during the past few years, commercial vehicle production is expected to decline by 5.9% this year compared with 2023. This will be primarily due to a re-balanced truck capacity along will a forecasted slowdown in freight demand in India.
South America: South America is being affected due the low vehicle demand volumes in Colombia and Argentina. Since Brazil is the largest volume in the region, TPI is not strongly impacted.
Japan/Korea. Medium and heavy commercial vehicle production in Japan and South Korea is increase by 7.8% this year over 2023. Commercial vehicle production is expected to increase by 5.8% in Japan and 5.5% in South Korea this year. The supply chain has shown relatively good improvement which led to stronger than expected production levels last year especially in South Korea.
Greater China. Medium and heavy commercial vehicle production is expected to increase by 5.3% this year over 2023. Vehicle demand was up sharply last year as the market recovered from a dismal 2022. While truck demand is expected to increase this year, the Chinese economy will continue to face economic headwinds during the next few years. PSR
By Chris Fisher, Senior Commercial Vehicle Analyst
