I traveled recently in the Toyosu area of Tokyo, an upscale residential area, and while there I stopped at a Hydrogen refueling station. While there, I spoke with one of the station’s staff, and I found his comments interesting.
He told me that the only FCVs on the market in Japan are the Toyota MIRAI sedan and Crown FCEV. Honda used to sell the Clarity FCV, but it has been discontinued and few are seen on the road. There are also no FCVs in trucks. There are about 80 hydrogen buses in Tokyo, but they don’t stop at this station because there is a hydrogen station is in the bus company’s office.
On weekends, maybe four or five cars come to the station each day, but on weekdays there are often days when not even one car comes. It’s very quiet. Filling up with hydrogen requires a person with a national qualification, so it’s not possible to operate it like a self-service gas station.
I thought his comments were interesting, so I did some research on hydrogen stations. Here is what I found.
Fewer Stations
First, as of the end of April 2024, there were 152 hydrogen stations in Japan. There are 21 in Tokyo, and they are all privately owned. On the other hand, there are about 24,000 gas stations nationwide, and about 900 in Tokyo. As we can see, there are many fewer hydrogen stations than gas stations, less than 1% as many.
Higher Costs
The construction cost of a hydrogen station is about US$ 2.9 million (400 million yen), not including the cost of the land. The maintenance cost is also high, ranging from US$ 209,000 to US$ 285,000 (30 to 40 million yen). The government will provide a subsidy of up to about US$ 1.45 million (200 million yen), but you will still have to start with your own funds of about US$ 1.45 million (200 million yen).
This is extremely disadvantageous for landowners. When using expensive urban land such as that in Toyosu, hydrogen stations are hardly profitable as a business and are extremely unprofitable. It is much more profitable to use the land for buildings and condominiums. In rural areas where land is cheap, there are few FCVs and almost no demand for stations.
In short, when land is used for business, hydrogen stations do not make a profit and therefore do not proliferate.
FCVs Not Popular
FCVs are not popular in Japan for several reasons. Even though the government and manufacturers are promoting the benefits of FCVs, the number of FCVs in Japan today is no more than about 5,000 – 8,000. In FY2023, the number of new FCV cars sold was 422, accounting for just 0.02% of the total. In contrast, the number of EVs sold was 43,991, accounting for 1.66% of the total. Even looking at the number of vehicles owned, there were about 7,300 FCVs compared to 229,000 BEVs and 208,000 PHVs.
Here are some of the main reasons why consumers are not buying FCVs.
· Few Hydrogen Fueling Stations as I mentioned above. Compared to BEVs, FCVs have the advantage of a shorter refueling time, but compared to the 21,600 EV charging stations nationwide, there are far too few hydrogen stations. FCVs also have the advantage of a longer range (750-850 km), but this does not mean that they do not need to be refueled. Drivers still must worry about getting to the next hydrogen station.
· Higher Price. The price of the MIRAI is about US$ 50,700 (7.3 million yen), which is in the price range of luxury cars, but compared to other luxury cars, it is not well known and does not have much added value as a luxury car. Although the government and local governments offer subsidies for the purchase of FCVs, there is still a burden of US$35,000 (4-5 million yen), and in this budget range, there are plenty of options for gasoline or diesel-powered cars and BEVs.
· High Maintenance Costs. While many people would like to use FCVs in trucks, since the long range of FCVs is highly compatible with trucks, whose routes can be predicted to some extent in advance. However, both Fuel Cell and Hydrogen are extremely expensive to operate and maintain. In addition, maintenance cannot be done in-house and must be done by the manufacturer or dealer. Until these costs are brought down to the level of gasoline and diesel vehicles, it will be difficult to popularize FCV trucks.
· Emissions Benefits Uncertain. The fact that they don’t emit CO2 is certainly a big selling point in terms of environmental performance, but to begin with, there are three types of hydrogen: gray, blue and green. As of today, all FCVs in use are gray, and we still have to wait for blue and green to become a reality. Even if they become a reality, they are likely to be extremely expensive.
Conclusion
TOYOTA is fighting a lonely battle with FCVs, and if they don’t give up, there will probably be further improvements in specifications and costs. In the end, however, we cannot expect widespread adoption without economic rationality.
The proliferation of hydrogen stations and FCVs is often talked about as a “chicken and egg” problem, but regardless of whether one or the other is prioritized, until the unique benefits of FCVs that are not found in current mainstream ICE are accepted by market, the realization of a hydrogen society will remain a pipe dream. Simply stating that the benefits are zero emissions will not appeal to the majority of buyers. #FCV #hydrogen #hydrogenstation #PSR
Akihiro Komuro is Research Analyst, Far East and Southeast Asia, for Power Systems Research
